Vote math points to Goldknopf and Bennett as potential government deciders

Political assessments circulating in the final hours before voting indicate that Agudat Yisrael, a three-seat haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, may hold the balance of power. The faction is reportedly considering backing a government led by a member of the current opposition bloc. This move would require a budgetary agreement and might still rely on support from Arab parties to secure a majority.

The potential shift stems from internal friction within United Torah Judaism. Agudat Yisrael has expressed dissatisfaction with the coalition's behavior, particularly regarding the haredi military draft. In August, the Maariv newspaper reported that the faction was exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. This development follows a letter from Rabbi Dov Lando expressing reservations about maintaining ties with the Netanyahu-led bloc, while the rival Degel Hatorah faction signaled a lack of confidence in the prime minister's government.

Goldknopf faces a strategic dilemma. His voter base is largely aligned with the Right. Political analysts suggest that if he supports a change bloc government, some supporters may defect to Likud or Otzma Yehudit. The risk of losing seats complicates the calculus for a faction that would be using its small numerical weight to influence the national government's composition.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also remains a variable in the coalition math. If neither the current governing bloc nor the opposition secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could be positioned to join a Netanyahu-led government. This scenario is described as remote but plausible because of Bennett's background on the Right. It would require him to shift his current political base, a difficult task given the composition of his existing party.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge figure, given his history of serving as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments suggest he is unlikely to make a similar move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. The willingness of any leader to cross traditional ideological lines is now a central focus of coalition planning.

For now, these remain internal assessments rather than formal agreements. The next 24 hours will determine whether the opposition can assemble a majority that includes the haredi faction or if the country faces another election. The specific budgetary terms required to win over Agudat Yisrael are still under discussion.

The political establishment is reviewing multiple outcomes, including a government reliant on Arab party support or a return to the polls. The final configuration of the next Knesset will hinge on whether these small factions and independent leaders choose to align with the larger blocs or maintain their distance.